Soyabean in negative zone

Soyabean futures traded on the NCDEX on a negative note all through the week. Prices fell for the sixth consecutive trading session, closing the week down by 4.2 per cent at ₹3,929/quintal as on April 28, 2017. Prices dropped due to expectation of decline in demand. Moreover, the strengthening of the Indian currency against the US dollar raised concerns regarding the demand for soyameal exports, which affected demand from oil millers and crushing units. The influx of cheaper soyameal supplies from the US and South American countries of Brazil and Argentina is expected to affect Indian soyameal exports in the coming days.

There has been an upward revision in Argentina’s soyabean production estimate following record yields witnessed in some of the growing regions. This is going to only further add to the record global soyabean supplies of 345.9 million tonnes this year, says the USDA. Meanwhile, as of April 23, 2017, in the US, soyabean planting has been completed to the extent of 6 per cent compared to 3 per cent a year earlier. The faster pace of planting progress is expected to weigh on the CBOT soyabean futures. This bearishness may also get reflected on the domestic soyabean futures contract.

Outlook

In the coming week, NCDEX soyabean futures may trade initially higher as prices are likely to witness short-covering. However, the gains may not sustain as there may be selling from stockists. The demand scenario is expected to remain subdued in anticipation of lower soyameal export demand from overseas buyers.

The writer is Head-Commodity Research, Karvy Comtrade

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