MCX-Natural Gas (₹212.1)

Since taking support from the long-term base level of ₹170 per mmBtu in late February 2017, the MCX-Natural Gas contract has been on a medium-term uptrend. After retracing 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of the contract’s prior downtrend, it encountered a key resistance at around ₹215 in early April. Last week, the contract took support at around ₹195 and bounced up, gaining 5 per cent. It now faces resistance level of ₹215 ahead. The daily relative strength index is on the brink of entering the bullish zone from the neutral region. A strong break above ₹215 will alter the intermediate-term downtrend and take the contract higher to ₹230 and ₹240 in the medium term. A further rally beyond ₹240 can take the contract to ₹250 and ₹264 in the long run. However, if the contract fails to move beyond ₹215, this can keep it moving sideways in the band between ₹195 and ₹215 for some time. A downward break of ₹195 can pull it down to ₹180 and to ₹170.

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