Commodity Calls

Bias turns negative for MCX-Nickel

Gurumurthy K BL Research Bureau | Updated on October 24, 2018 Published on October 24, 2018

The Nickel futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) seems to lack strength. The contract bounced higher after making a low of ₹895 per kg on October 18 but the up-move was short-lived.

The contract has fallen over 2 per cent from the high of ₹928.1 it clocked on Monday and currently trades at ₹904 per kg.

The 21-day moving average resistance at ₹928 has halted the bounce-back move and has triggered a reversal. This leaves the bias negative on the charts. There is a strong likelihood of the contract falling to ₹880 in the coming days. A further break below ₹880 will then increase the possibility of the down-move extending to ₹870 or even ₹865.

The region around ₹865 and ₹863 is a crucial support. If the contract manages to bounce from this support zone, a relief rally to ₹880 and ₹900 is possible. But a strong break below ₹863 will bring renewed pressure and increase the likelihood of the contract tumbling to ₹810 and ₹800 levels. As such the price action around the ₹865-₹863 region will need a close watch.

The downside pressure will ease only if the contract breaks decisively above the 21-day moving average resistance. In that case the contract can move up to ₹950 and ₹960 levels again. But such a strong upmove looks less probable at the moment.

Trading strategy

Traders can exit the long positions taken at ₹935 and ₹925.

Note: The recommendations are based on technical analysis. There is a risk of loss in trading.

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