Pivotals - Reliance Industries (Rs 719.5)



The stock was choppy and finished the week by declining 1.6 per cent. It registered a new 52-week low at Rs 713.5 on Friday. Traders with short-term perspective can consider holding their short positions with stop loss at Rs 731. The initial downward target is Rs 700 and then Rs 685. Inability to decline below the first target will be cue for covering the short position as Rs 700 is key medium-term support level.

However, reversal upwards in the ensuing week can encounter resistance at Rs 750 first and then at Rs 773. Subsequent key resistance is at Rs 790.

The stock has been on a medium-term down trend from this April peak of Rs 1,065 levels. Decisive fall below Rs 700 can pull the stock down to Rs 650 in the medium-term, with pause around Rs 675. Strong move beyond Rs 900 is required to reverse this downtrend.

State Bank of India (Rs 1,888.7)

SBI plunged 7.5 per cent over the week in line with our expectation. However, the stock is currently testing significant long-term support band between Rs 1,870 and Rs 1,900. The stock's downtrend that started from the November 2010 peak of Rs 3,515 has retraced 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of its prior up move between March 2009 and November 2010.

The stock is trading below the lower boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands, signalling that it is oversold. Further, the daily and weekly indicators are hovering in the oversold area. We also notice there is an increase in volumes over the past three weeks. Short-term traders with high risk appetite can consider buying the stock with Rs 1,860 as a stop-loss level. An up move from current levels can encounter resistances at Rs 2,000 and then at Rs 2,080.

Medium-term trend is down for the stock. Conclusive downward break through of support at Rs 1,870 can drag the stock down to Rs 1,750 and then to Rs 1,600 in the medium term. Medium-term resistances are at Rs 2,300 and Rs 2,500.

Tata Steel (Rs 422.2)

The stock conclusively broke through its long-term support at Rs 450 by tumbling 8 per cent in the last week. Short-term traders can consider holding their short positions with stop loss at Rs 435 levels. Downward targets are Rs 410 and Rs 400. However, rebound from either of the target levels can witness sharp rally to Rs 440 or Rs 450 in the coming week. Next key resistance is at Rs 475 levels.

The stock has been on a medium-term downtrend from its April peak of Rs 640. As long as the stock trades below Rs 550, its downtrend remains in place. Next medium-term support is positioned at Rs 380 and then at Rs 350.

Infosys (Rs 2,204.5)

Last week the stock moved sideways, between intra-week high of Rs 2,300 and intra-week low of Rs 2,169, and ended forming a spinning top candlestick pattern, implying indecisiveness. The stock is still testing its key support level at Rs 2,200. We expect the stock to continue its sideways movement between Rs 2,169 and Rs 2,300 in the truncated week ahead. Traders with a short-term perspective should tread with caution as long as the stock trades within the aforesaid range.

Strong jump above Rs 2,300 can lift the stock higher to Rs 2,350 and Rs 2,400 levels. Next key resistance is at Rs 2,500. On the other hand, decline below Rs 2,169 will pull the stock down to Rs 2,100 and Rs 2,000 in the medium-term.

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