Pivotals: Reliance Industries (Rs 808)



RIL plummeted Rs 75.8 or 8.6 per cent accompanied with good volumes in the previous week. However, it is trying to find support around the Rs 785 and Rs 800 zone, after retracing 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of its prior up move (between August low of Rs 713 and November peak of Rs 902). The stock has breached Rs 847 and reached both the supports mentioned last week.

Currently, the stock hovering above a crucial short-term trend deciding level of Rs 785. A fall below this will be a cue for initiating fresh short positions with stop-loss at Rs 830. Downward targets are Rs 760 and Rs 740.

On the other hand, strong jump above immediate key resistance level of Rs 835 will push the stock higher to Rs 860 and Rs 885. Strong up move above Rs 900 is required to emphasise bullish momentum and take the stock higher to Rs 920 or even to Rs 970. The stock continues to be in a medium-term downtrend. It has significant long-term support in the zone between Rs 700 and Rs 750. Investors with medium-term perspective and greater penchant for risk can capitalise on declines and buy the stock with stop-loss at Rs 700.

State Bank of India (Rs 1,725.5)

In line with our expectations, the stock declined last week and is testing its key support at Rs 1,710. It has dropped 4 per cent with good weekly volumes. The short-term trend is down for the stock. It is further trading well below its 21- and 50-day moving averages. Both daily and weekly indicators are featuring in the bearish zone.

The stock is testing vital support at the Rs 1,700-mark. An emphatic dive below this level will strengthen the stock's medium-term downtrend and pull it down to Rs 1,637 and then to its July 2009 trough formed at around Rs 1,510, in the weeks ahead. Therefore, short-term traders should tread with extreme caution in the coming week.

A rebound from Rs 1,700 will encounter resistances at Rs 1,800, Rs 1,860 and Rs 1,900. The next important resistance is at Rs 2,000.

Tata Steel (Rs 392.5)

Tata Steel plunged 8.7 per cent accompanied by above-average weekly volumes in the previous week. The stock is currently testing its key longer-term support band between Rs 390 and Rs 400. Inability to move above Rs 410 will be an indication for a fresh short position while maintaining stop-loss at that level. The stock can decline to Rs 380 and Rs 365 in the short-term. But a reversal upwards from the stock support band and a rally above Rs 410 can push the stock higher to Rs 423, Rs 437 and Rs 450 resistances.

The stock appears to have resumed its medium-term downtrend. We reiterate that a strong weekly close below the significant support zone between Rs 390 and Rs 400 will pave the way for a decline to Rs 353 in the medium-term. However, a conclusive breakthrough of resistance at Rs 515 will modify the downtrend.

Infosys (Rs 2,739.5)

Infosys outperformed the other pivotals by declining only 1.3 per cent in the previous week. We adhere to our prior view that an upward reversal from Rs 2,700 will be sign for initiating fresh long positions with stop at Rs 2,690 for short-term traders. Targets are Rs 2,850 and Rs 2,900. Short-term supports for the stock are pegged at Rs 2,730, Rs 2,700 and Rs 2,660.

As long as the stock trades above Rs 2,660, its short-term uptrend stays intact. A fall below Rs 2,660 will spell peril for the stock's short-term uptrend and the stock can then tumble to Rs 2,550 and to Rs 2,450. Strong breakthrough of its important medium-term resistance level of Rs 3,000 will propel the stock northwards to Rs 3,500 in the months ahead.

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