Technicals: Gold (Rs 29,033)



Pulling back from their high of Rs 29,276 per 10 grams, MCX Gold futures have found support at the 200-day moving average, currently at Rs 28,743. The short-term outlook is bullish and a rise to Rs 31,000 looks likely in coming weeks. Intermediate resistances are seen at Rs 29,570 and Rs 29,970. A breach of these resistances will clear the way for upward movement to Rs 31,000. The 200-day moving average is the immediate support, a breach of which could drag the contract below Rs 28,350. Traders can go long, with stop-loss at Rs 28,300. The key medium-term resistance is at Rs 31,000 and the contract needs to move past this level for the outlook to turn bullish. Inability to do so would see the contract move in a broad sideways range between Rs 28,000 and Rs 31,000.

Silver (Rs 44,824)

MCX silver contracts have been trading in a narrow range between Rs 43,500 to Rs 45,850 per kg in the last few days. A breakout from this range will decide the short-term trend. A strong break above Rs 45,850 will be bullish and the contract could move toward a target of Rs 47,850. On the other hand, a fall below Rs 43,500 will be bearish and could see the contract decline to Rs 42,000. Short-term traders can wait for a breakout before taking positions In the medium-term, Rs 41,500 and Rs 40,000 are the crucial supports.

Copper (Rs 457.45)

Copper futures on the MCX have fallen for the second consecutive week, cutting short an uptrend from their November low of Rs 428.85 per kg. The expected rally to Rs 510 looks less probable in the near-term. Immediate support is at Rs 453. Inability to bounce back from this support in the coming week will keep the contract under pressure. A break below Rs 453 could pull the contract below Rs 438. If the contract breaches Rs 453, short-term traders can go short with stop-loss at Rs 465. A strong close above Rs 470 will pave the way for a rally to Rs 510.

Crude oil (Rs 5,704)

MCX Crude Oil futures extended their fall for the second consecutive week and the outlook remains bearish. Traders can accumulate short positions with revised stop-loss at Rs 6,150 per barrel. A fall to Rs 5,500 and Rs 5,350 is more likely now. Immediate resistance is at Rs 5,750. Even if the contract moves past this level, it will face strong resistance at Rs 5,975. In the medium-term, Rs 5,350-5,400 is a strong support zone that may not be broken easily. There is probability of a reversal from this zone, which could take the contract higher to Rs 8,000 in the long-term.

Natural gas (Rs 251.2)

The MCX Natural Gas contract tumbled 8 per cent last week. Technically, a strong reversal has happened from the Rs 275-280 resistance zone, which is the upper end of the bull channel. Consequently, it is likely the contract will extend its fall to Rs 240 per million British thermal units in future. A break below Rs 240 will take the contract lower to Rs 220, which is the bull channel support. Resistances are seen at Rs 260 and Rs 265. Upward movement in the coming week will be an opportunity to assume short-positions, with stop-loss at Rs 272.

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