Market Strategy

QUERY CORNER - Strong uptrend in NHPC

Lokeshwarri S.K. | Updated on December 01, 2012 Published on December 01, 2012

Please give the technical view for Ranbaxy and Thermax.

Sivakumar T

Ranbaxy (Rs 503.2): The long-term uptrend that began in Ranbaxy from the March 2009 trough continues to be in force. The correction that took place in 2011 halted around Rs 366. This occurs at the halfway mark of the rally from 2009 low.There is another support a little lower, around Rs 320. Investors can hold the stock as long as it trades above this level. It can also be accumulated in declines with stop at Rs 315.

That said, the stock is stuck in a trading band between Rs 360 and Rs 620. Investors with short- to medium-term perspective can book some profits as the stock reaches the zone between Rs 600 and Rs 650.

Long-term target on break above Rs 650 is Rs 670. Long-term view will turn overtly positive on break above Rs 700. Subsequent target is Rs 858.

Thermax (Rs 590): Thermax has strong long-term support in the zone between Rs 390 and Rs 450. The stock took support from this area twice, in December 2011 and then in May 2012, and is currently in a medium-term uptrend. This uptrend faces resistance at Rs 600 and then at Rs 724.

The stock is currently struggling to move beyond the first resistance. Inability to move beyond this level will mean that the near-term view stays negative for the stock and there is a possibility of the stock moving lower to Rs 450 or Rs 390 again. Long-term view will turn positive only on move above Rs 730.

Fresh purchases are not recommended on a move below Rs 390 since there can be a precipitous fall thereafter.

Can I know the long-term view of NHPC?


NHPC (Rs 23.25): This stock is in a strong uptrend since the low of Rs 17.3 recorded in September. NHPC has gained 37 per cent since then. That the stock has moved above Rs 22.4 is positive from a short-term perspective.

Next target for the stock is Rs 25. There is a strong resistance zone between Rs 25 and Rs 26 and investors with short- to medium-term perspective can exit their holdings if the stock is unable to move beyond this level.

Inability to move above this level will keep the stock in the zone between Rs 17 and Rs 26. Stop-loss for short-term investors can be at Rs 19 while long-term investors can hold the stock as long as it trades above Rs 17. Targets on move above Rs 26 are Rs 29 and Rs 31.

I have purchased shares of Gujarat Fluorochem at Rs 461 and Kalpataru Power at Rs 122. Please let me know whether I can hold on to these shares or book losses or buy additional shares.

A.R. Ramanarayanan

Gujarat Fluorochem (Rs 331.95): This stock is in a short- and medium-term downtrend. But the long-term trend in this stock stays positive. Key long-term support for the stock is at Rs 262. Investors can hold the stock with the stop-loss at Rs 250.

The outlook will deteriorate considerably only on sharp fall below this level. Next support for the stock is at Rs 160.

Medium-term resistances for the stock are positioned at Rs 420, Rs 454 and Rs 492. You can exit the stock on rallies to either of these levels. Long-term view will turn positive only on a strong close above Rs 500.

Kalpataru Power (Rs 83.2): Kalpataru Power is in a vicious downtrend since January 2010. It ceaselessly spiralled lower dotted with insignificant pullbacks. The stock is currently nearing its long-term support around Rs 44.

Investors with long-term perspective, who are still holding on to the stock, can continue to do so with the stop at Rs 44.

As far as medium- and short-term investors are concerned, it is too late to sell the stock at this level.

A better strategy would be to hold with the stop-loss at Rs 62 and exit the stock in rallies to Rs 133 and Rs 180. Long-term outlook will turn positive only on a close above Rs 276.

What are the long-term (more than two years) prospects of Kolte-Patil Developers bought at Rs 69?

Syed Mohammed

Kolte-Patil Developers (Rs 78.7): Kolte-Patil Developers is in a strong medium-term uptrend since September. The stock has gained around 120 per cent since then. This rally helped the stock scale the key medium-term peak at Rs 76. This level thwarted the stock’s uptrend in January 2010 and again in October that year.

That said, the stock has not made a clean break above this resistance yet. It is, instead, hovering in the band between Rs 75 and Rs 85 over the last three weeks. A strong close above Rs 85 will mean that the stock is heading towards Rs 116 and Rs 136.

Short-term investors should, therefore, hold the stock with stop at Rs 66. Long-term investors can hold with deeper stop-loss at Rs 50.

Long-term view will turn positive only on a close beyond Rs 116. Inability to move beyond this will mean that the stock could establish a range between Rs 50 and Rs 115.

Read further by subscribing to

The Hindu Businessline

What You'll Get

  • Web + Mobile

    Access exclusive content of the Hindu Businessline across desktops, tablet and mobile device.

  • Exclusive portfolio stories and investment advice

    Gain exclusive market insights from the Hindu Businessline's research desk.

  • Ad free experience

    Experience cleaner site with zero ads and faster load times.

  • Personalised dashboard

    Customize your preference and get a personalized recommendation of stories based on your intrest.

This article is closed for comments.
Please Email the Editor