There is a huge change driven by technological and societal factors that is going to affect all of us, and investors can benefit by anticipating the trends.

One of these is the onslaught of urbanisation. About 70 per cent of India’s population lives in rural areas, but the terms of trade for agriculture are manifestly unfair — over 50 per cent of the population, which is dependent on agriculture, getting 14 per cent of national income. This cannot last. The fix will come from increasing their income (through reduction in waste) and from reducing the number dependent on it (through migration to urban areas).

Better roads from villages to towns would have helped reduce the 30 per cent of fruits and vegetables that are destroyed in transit, but we concentrated, instead, on building the golden quadrilateral, to connect the four cities. Pity, that.

In what will arguably be the biggest migration in human history, some 400 million people will move from rural to urban areas in the coming decade. Urbanisation would provide jobs both in the creation of cities and in the running of them. But where would the land to build new cities come from?

One option has been provided by Chandrababu Naidu, AP Chief Minister, through land pooling. In this, farmers voluntarily surrender their land in return for a smaller, but well-developed, area, and an annual income to sustain. By giving them a stake in development, Naidu has cleverly overcome resistance to sell land.

Energy technology In the planning of new cities several new technologies ought to be used, and should provide investors with opportunities. One area is in energy where policymakers are employing a multi-pronged approach to tackle this, using technology. Investors need to watch out for developments in these technologies.

As dirty coal is phased out, clean renewable, especially solar, will replace it. Battery technology is being developed to store power generated from solar rooftop for use at night, making the home completely independent of the grid.

Imagine what this would do to existing players generating and transmitting power, if such solar batteries became cost effective and popular.

Lighter cars Another prong of attack to reduce energy consumption is the one used in cars. As per  www.natcap.org , some 20 per cent of energy is wasted in conversion to mechanical energy, and of the balance, less than 5 per cent is used to move the passenger and 75 per cent to move the vehicle.

The new driverless car, called Google car, will change all that. One, its passenger/vehicle weight ratio will be more favourable by using lighter composites. This will negatively affect demand for steel.

Two, combining driverless cars with shared services (like Uber), the need to own a car is reduced, since one is available virtually on call. McKinsey estimates that vehicle population will fall 80 per cent in future. This impacts the auto industry; what becomes of the capacity built up?

For urban planners, an 80 per cent reduction in vehicle population means lower road and parking space, freeing up areas for other things.

New cities must have local food supply through technologies such as vertical farming. Agriculture is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, starting from production (tractors), transport (trucks) to storage and thus vulnerable to disruption in supply. Instead, one can grow vegetables and fruits within the city limits and reduce the use of fertilisers, pesticides and water — thereby helping cut subsidies.

So, investors can follow these trends as they would provide new opportunities and shake-up of status quo .

The author is India Head, Euromoney Conferences

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