On the Charts: Gold, Silver, Copper, Natural gas, Crude oil

MCX-Gold (₹28,909)

Gold futures contract on the MCX has begun the New Year on a strong note. The contract surged 5 per cent last month, halting the strong downtrend that was in place since August last year. Inability to breach the immediate resistance at ₹29,000 per 10 gm may keep it range-bound between ₹28,000 and ₹29,000 in the near term. Strong support is in the ₹28,400-₹28,000 region. An immediate break below ₹28,000 looks less probable. An eventual break above ₹29,000 may see the uptrend extending to ₹29,500 or ₹29,850. Further break above ₹29,850 can target ₹30,300 and ₹30,600 over the medium term. Traders with a medium-term perspective can buy on dips at ₹28,600. Stop-loss can be placed at ₹27,750 for the target of ₹30,500. Revise the stop-loss higher to ₹28,850 if the contract moves up to ₹29,500. On the global front, spot gold is poised well above the psychological $1,200 mark. Key support is in the $1,200-$1,180 zone. A test of $1,250 is likely in the near term. A strong break above $1,250 can target $1,280 or even $1,300.



MCX-Copper (₹387.7)

The copper futures contract on the MCX appears to have lost momentum after a strong 21 per cent rally in November. The contract has been broadly range-bound between ₹365 and ₹410 in the last few months. It made a high of ₹409.45 in the last week of January and reversed sharply lower. The sharp 4 per cent fall last week signals that the broad sideways consolidation movement remains intact. Immediate support is at ₹382. A break below it can drag the contract lower to ₹365 in the coming weeks. The presence of the 21-week and the 100-month moving averages around ₹370 and ₹365, respectively, make it less probable for the contract to break below ₹365. A subsequent reversal from the ₹370-₹365 support zone may take the contract higher to ₹400 and ₹410 once again. The region between ₹410 and ₹415 is a key resistance to watch. A strong break above ₹415 is needed for the contract to gain momentum. Such a break can take the contract higher to ₹428. Further break above ₹428 will pave the way for the next targets of ₹450 or even higher.

MCX-Silver (₹41,797)

After three consecutive months of negative close, the silver futures contract on the MCX surged 7 per cent to close in the green last month. Technically, this reversal has happened from the 21-month moving average support. The outlook is bullish with strong support in the ₹40,500-₹40,800 zone. A strong break above the psychological resistance at ₹42,000 may boost the bullish momentum. Such a break can take it to ₹42,800. Further break above ₹42,800 will see the rally extend to ₹43,600. Traders with a medium-term perspective can buy on dips at ₹41,300. Stop-loss can be placed at ₹40,100 for the target of ₹43,300. Revise the stop-loss higher to ₹41,700 as soon the contract moves up to ₹42,350. On the global front, the silver spot prices have risen, breaking above the key $17-$17.20 per ounce resistance zone. It is currently trading at $17.5 and a rise to $18 is likely in the short term. A strong break above $18 can take it to the next resistance at $18.35 in the near term. Further break above $18.35 may target the levels of $18.5 and $19.

MCX-Natural Gas (₹206.2)

The natural gas contract on the MCX plummeted 16 per cent last month. Last week, the contract slumped 10 per cent breaking below the 21-week moving average support at ₹215. However, there is no danger to the strong uptrend that has been in place since March last year. The recent pull-back could just be a corrective fall. Key support is in the ₹190-₹200 zone which may halt the corrective fall. But if the contract breaks below ₹190 decisively, the downmove can extend to ₹185 or ₹180. However, a break below ₹190 looks less probable. A subsequent reversal from the ₹190-₹200 support zone may take the contract higher to ₹215 or ₹220. Further break above ₹220 will see the contract revisiting ₹250 levels. The level of ₹256 is a key resistance to watch. The contract will need to breach this hurdle decisively to gain fresh momentum. Such a break can take it higher to the next target of ₹290. Medium-term traders can hold long positions. Retain stop-loss at ₹190 for the target of ₹290.

MCX-Crude Oil (₹3,614)

The MCX-Crude Oil futures contract is not gaining momentum to extend its rally decisively above ₹3,500 per barrel. The contract fell back after making a high of ₹3,780 in the first week on January; since then it has been oscillating within a narrow range between ₹3,480 and ₹3,675. The immediate outlook is not clear. Key supports are at ₹3,460 and ₹3,355 — the 21-week moving average. The contract will come under pressure only if it declines decisively below ₹3,355. In such a scenario, the MCX-Crude Oil contract may fall to ₹3,100 in the short term. On the other hand, ₹3,700 is a key resistance to watch. A decisive weekly close above this hurdle is needed for the contract to gain fresh momentum. Such a break can trigger a fresh rise to ₹4,000 initially. Further break above ₹4,000 can see the upmove extending to ₹4,200 or ₹4,300 thereafter. On the global front, WTI Crude Oil contract is broadly range-bound between $50 and $55. A fall below $50 looks less probable. As such, a strong break above $55 may pave the way for a rise to $57 and $57.35.





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