Expert View

Oil prices are projected to be around $75/barrel and we expect an average trade deficit of $16 billion per month. With this, we project the current account deficit to widen to $70 billion in FY19. This will be about 2.7% of GDP. For the first time in seven years, we are looking at a BoP deficit of around 1% of GDP

Tanvee Gupta Jain Chief India Economist, UBS Securities

At present, we forecast the current account deficit for FY19 to increase to 2.8 per cent of GDP. We will relook at this estimate once additional details are provided on the measures to be taken by the government to curb imports or boost exports. Given the size of the FPI outflows so far in FY2019, we continue to expect a BoP deficit for the year

Aditi Nayar Principal Economist, ICRA

Portfolio capital outflows in this fiscal year has been $9.3 billion due to a strong US economy and dollar. This is expected to turn India’s overall BoP into deficit this fiscal, after a period of six years, thereby implying forex reserves depletion of $16 billion. We expect the rupee to end between 70 and 73 this fiscal

Soumya Kanti Ghosh Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI

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