The Aluminium futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange fell about 2 per cent in the past week. The contract is currently trading at ₹123.45 a kg, just above a key support level of ₹123. The contract will come under more pressure if it declines below ₹123. Such a break can take the contract lower to ₹122 or ₹121.5 initially. Key trendline supports are poised at ₹122 and ₹121.5. An upward reversal from either ₹122 or ₹121.5 can take the contract higher to ₹125 or even ₹127 once again. In such a scenario, the contract may remain range bound between ₹121.5 and ₹127 for some time. A breakout on either side of this range will then decide the next trend.
On the other hand, the downside pressure may increase if the MCX-Aluminium futures contract breaks below ₹121.5 decisively. Such a break will increase the likelihood of the contract extending its fall to ₹120 and ₹119 thereafter.
The contract will need a strong break and a decisive close above ₹127 for the downside pressure to ease. Such a break can boost the momentum and take the contract higher to ₹130 thereafter. But such a rally looks less probable at the moment. The contract may consolidate between ₹121 and ₹127 for some time before it makes a swift move on either side.
Note: The recommendations are based on technical analysis. There is a risk of loss in trading.
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